✍️ Welcome to My Writing Hub

I’m Chak Kakani — a computer engineer turned entrepreneur, mentor, and systems thinker, with a deep curiosity about how things work, how people lead, and how civilizations are built and preserved.

After 25+ years building companies, mentoring leaders, and exploring systems thinking across disciplines, I’ve launched three interconnected publications — all designed to share signal, not noise.

At kakani.co and my associated platforms, I share insights through short dives, deep explorations, and cross-disciplinary thinking — spanning technology, leadership, culture, philosophy, economics, and more.

All three of my Substack publications are currently free to subscribe.

I believe in creating genuine value first — and if that resonates, everything else will follow.

📚 What Are the 3Cs?

The three pillars that organize my writing:

🔹 Chips

Exploring the deep infrastructure that powers AI and emerging technologies — starting from semiconductor chips, but going much further.

At chiptechtalk.kakani.co, I cover:

• Semiconductor manufacturing (fabs, foundries)

• Compute (GPUs, TPUs, custom silicon)

• Data centers, energy systems, and supply chains

• Global trade routes and geopolitical choke points

• LLMs, chatbots, and application layers higher up the stack

• Industrial policy and technology strategy

If GPT is the magic, these are the factories, electrons, and global systems behind the spell.

🔸 Craft

Craft is about leadership, influence, and personal development — building resilient people, strong teams, and enduring organizations.

At craft.kakani.co, I explore:

• Leadership without ego

• Coaching and mentorship that compound over time

• Strategic communication and persuasion without manipulation

• Building high-trust teams

• Selling without pitching (inspired by Win Without Pitching)

• Personal development, productivity systems, and decision-making frameworks

Craft is not about hustle culture or quick wins.

It’s about deliberate mastery.

🟠 Curiosity

Curiosity is the open field where philosophy, economics, governance, and culture intersect — with freedom and rationality at the center.

At kakani.co, I explore:

• The roots of Western civilization and its moral framework

• Political philosophy, governance systems, and history

• Economics, culture, freedom, and societal design

• Observations about mental models, tools for sharper thinking, and cultural shifts

• Smaller curiosities that don’t fit neatly into “tech” or “leadership” but still matter

Some explorations are grand, others are small.

Curiosity doesn’t have to be monumental — it just has to be real.

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I’m building three dedicated publications:

🔹 chiptechtalk.kakani.co — Chips and AI Infrastructure

🔸 craft.kakani.co — Leadership, Craft, and Influence

🟠 kakani.co — Curiosity, Culture, and Timeless Thinking

Each is currently free to subscribe.

Each explores a different but interconnected piece of how our world works — and how it can be built better.

✍️ My AI Writing Policy

Across all three publications, I use AI thoughtfully — as a research assistant and idea partner, not as a ghostwriter.

I use AI for in-depth research, idea development, and to explore connections across domains.

But every word you read here is mine — shaped by my own thinking, judgment, and experience.

Not just the words, but the tone and style are mine as well.

I cannot and will not delegate that to AI.

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Only clarity, depth, and deliberate thought.

That’s my promise.

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This space is for thoughtful exploration and serious inquiry — not spam, trolling, or toxic engagement.

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🎯 Why I Built This

The goal of these publications — and this platform — is simple:

• To share genuine signal across technology, leadership, culture, and civilization

• To deliver insight that stays valuable beyond the news cycle

• To help build a better architecture of thought, leadership, and creation

Every article, essay, and dive is built intentionally — organized, principled, and anchored in reason.

🧠 What Sets My Work Apart

Everyone writes with a perspective, whether they realize it or not.

The difference here is that my lens — a philosophy grounded in reason — is conscious, deliberate, and structured.

Every framework, strategy, and commentary is filtered through that clarity.

Even when conclusions are debatable, the thinking behind them is intentional and transparent.

That’s what I aim to deliver:

Clear thinking. Anchored frameworks. Strategic insights.

🧩 Explore the Latest Thinking

Ongoing highlights will include:

• Deep dives

• Short analyses

• Strategic commentaries across Chips, Craft, and Curiosity

Here’s a sample deep dive to get started:

🔹 Trifecta: Tariffs, Threat of Real War, and the AI Supply Chain

How escalating tariff wars are confusing supply chains at every layer of the AI economy — and why understanding this disruption matters.

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🧭 Final Thoughts

Thank you for being part of this exploration.

If clarity, depth, and genuine insight matter, I hope these spaces will become part of your regular intellectual diet.

Let’s build something better — together.

—Chak

The United States has rolled out sweeping new tariffs—up to 245% in some cases on Chinese imports, and 20% on goods from the rest of the world (paused at 10% until 90 days) —as part of a bold economic pivot. The Trump administration’s stated goal: to revive American manufacturing, reduce dependence on adversarial supply chains, and bring critical production capabilities back home.

On the surface, the logic resonates: make foreign goods more expensive, and domestic industry will rise to fill the gap. Early projections suggest tens of thousands of new manufacturing jobs could emerge, particularly in sectors like EVs, solar panels, and low-tech consumer goods. In the short term, this is politically popular. This is a decisive action (in progress).

Long Term Outlook

But in an economy where technology is the primary driver of growth, these policies carry deeper costs. Trade isn’t just about goods—it’s about systems. And when you distort a system as complex as global technology, you don’t just raise prices. You suppress innovation, misallocate capital, and sow long-term strategic weakness.

Tariffs, since the mid-twentieth century, have been the hallmark of socialist or collectivist economies, and have quietly crept into the West under the label of “industrial policy.” But the principle remains the same: force-based allocation over voluntary exchange. America, once the world’s champion of free markets (after the early adventures with tariffs), risks using the very tools of economic central planning it once opposed.

A Brief History of Tariffs

To be objective, Tariffs have been a significant part of U.S. trade policy since 1789, initially serving as the main revenue source, often accounting for over 90% of federal income until the 1860s. They were also used to protect domestic industries like textiles and steel during the 19th century. However, after World War II, the U.S. shifted to more global free trade, reducing tariff reliance, though recent years saw a return to more and more protectionism in the West. Most people would be surprised to know that none less than one of the Founding Fathers, Alexander Hamilton, was a champion of tariffs! Hamilton was of course a staunch Federalist, but in all respect to him and others, Adam Smith's seminal work, The Wealth of Nations' was just written (1776), and the foundations of Capitalism as a comprehensive system were not yet understood.

The first time I heard in some detail about Trump's (2.0) tariffs, was from the then-candidate Trump on the Joe Rogan podcast. Most at the time (including me) thought it was a good negotiating tactic that might result in actually reducing the barriers. It still might be—time will tell.

Principle-wise, If China, India, or the EU choose to damage themselves through protectionism (tariffs), the proper response isn’t imitation—it’s excellence through innovation and freedom. We don’t protect our prosperity by mimicking their decay.

Path to Prosperity for the American Middle Class

There is an important point of concern for the American middle class which cannot be ignored, no matter where you stand politically. For the middle class in the US, globalization has disadvantaged (relatively) many, with manufacturing jobs declining and wages stagnating, while countries like India and China saw huge growth in the prosperity (relatively) of their middle class. This is the reality. In the past, lots of farm jobs were "lost", when America went through massive mechanization and electrification, but the majority of those people re-tooled themselves and became part of the industrial workforce with more pay and a relatively higher standard of living. Why is the same thing not so apparent today? Why haven't we seen more Americans re-tool themselves as Software Engineers and Product Managers? The issue is more complex to analyze and predict than in the nineteenth century: increasing white-collar non-immigrant and immigrant workforce, the fast-changing definition of knowledge work, and highly evolved global supply chains for material, products, software, services, and labor; all of which have played a part. So the path to prosperity for the middle class might be more nuanced, complex, and delayed. Meanwhile, the push to bring manufacturing and related jobs back to America (from China and Southeast Asia) will most probably result in short-term benefits to some in the American middle class.

Currency Manipulation, Cheaper Imports, and Manufacturing

A related issue is that of Chinese currency manipulation by keeping the Yuan artificially low. For a deep dive into this issue, you can check out some in-depth resources from the US Library of Congress. For now, it is enough to say that the Chinese currency manipulation as designated by the US Dept. of Treasury can be nuanced. The exact fallout and who benefits from the resulting relatively "cheaper" export of Chinese goods into the US can differ depending on the perspective. One view is that the American consumer (all of us) benefit immensely from this, and the Chinese workers are toiling for the benefit of the almighty American consumer. Another view is that China is playing unfairly by exporting cheap (meaning lower priced, not necessarily the quality) goods and destroying the manufacturing base in the US. I want to mention that the issue is fascinating and nuanced as can be seen from the resources above. In the hyper-efficient global supply chain world that developed over the last several decades, America continued its dominance as the largest economy in the world, though the benefits have not accrued evenly for all, as evidenced by the huge disparity between the middle class and the rich. This is true of every nation in the world, but the middle class in India and China rose from poverty (a big perceivable difference), whereas the American middle class stayed in the same category, though slightly more prosperous than before.

Managing National Security In a "Free" World

The U.S.'s success with free trade post-WWII shows open markets are key, but national security requires vigilance. Given the anti-tariff, freedom culture (even though it was always only partial freedom, even before Trump 2.0), managing security risks is real. To be clear, the China threat is real. The most advanced semiconductor chips (3nm and sub-5nm nodes) that make up the foundation for cutting-edge AI (Artificial Intelligence) are key to US defense and national security In addition to this, AI at the Large Language Model (LLM) layer (GPT4.1, etc), and application layers, feeds directly into distributed drone systems that are vital to the US security.

To alleviate this concern, the US Congress passed the CHIPS Act 2022. As detailed in the Hudson report, export controls, investment screening, and subsidies for strategic sectors like semiconductors, as implemented with the CHIPS Act, aim to address specific risks. The CHIPS Act is partly economic and partly military-related. For details, check out this vision paper. Can the $52.7 billion allocated by the CHIPS Act spur the creation of an end-to-end supply chain, all in the US? Can the CHIPS Act and export controls solve this threat, without the tariff trade war? I don't know the answer, and I will be the first to admit that the solution to the "China problem" is not simple.

Since 2020, Chinese companies have not had access to the most advanced chips from TSMC, and the tariff trade war can further squeeze China. This might be good for US national security in the short term, but the imminent Chinese threat of a real war, and its possible takeover of Taiwan (where the fabrication units for the chips are located) by military force in the not-so-distant future, will disrupt all technology supply chains for everyone. It is a guaranteed Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) even if the US is willing to deploy military force to defend Taiwan. To be clear, I don't think that the US should back off from the Chinese threat for this reason (appeasement never works and Trump is right in that), I am just stating a real possible scenario for market mayhem and disruption.

The Hidden Cost of Tariffs

As Henry Hazlitt warned in Economics in One Lesson, the best economic policy looks beyond the immediate gains of the few and considers the longer-term costs to everyone.

My area of interest is at the cutting edge of technology, in addition to culture and leadership. In addition to my thoughts and insights into the rapidly changing world order (geopolitical strategy), I will dwell deep into semiconductors, chips, AI, and all aspects of its supply chains in detail in the coming weeks and months—please stay tuned.

The Most Important Supply Chain: Cutting Edge Technology (Semiconductors to AI)

Though "Technology" technically makes up about 10% of the US GDP, it enables the rest of 90%. In a way, it is embedded in every part of the economy and cannot be truly isolated. Of all aspects of "technology”, the most important is the one that determines our future prosperity: The AI Supply Chain (Semiconductors, Chips, Infrastructure, LLMs, Applications).

One of the tech analysts that I respect and follow, Ben Thompson’s analysis makes it clear that technology today is not built in silos—it’s a layered, interdependent, global architecture. In the rest of this article, I will provide a surface-level overview of the possible impacts at every layer of the most cutting-edge technology and the overall economy today.

Caution: The impact numbers I give are my guesses. No one can accurately model the exact specifics (not yet anyway), given the uncertainty of the policy and the trade negotiations. But assuming some worst-case scenarios, I took a rough stab at the numbers. The exact impacts and at what layer might widely differ. The severity of the impact might be delayed or deferred forever. Of course, I would be happy to be wrong on all these counts.

Layer 1: Semiconductors – The Core of Everything

Semiconductors power everything—AI models, smartphones, defense systems, cloud infrastructure. Taiwan’s TSMCproduces over 60% of the global chip supply, including nearly all (close to 100%) of the advanced 3nm and sub-5nm nodes. China, meanwhile, supplies key rare earths, older fabs, and specialty materials.

Tariffs on both sources create friction:

• A $500 chip becomes $600—with no added performance.

• U.S. firms face 3–6 month delays in chip delivery.

• TSMC’s $65B Arizona plant won’t scale meaningfully until 2030—and at a higher cost.

Strategic independence cannot be legislated. It must be earned.

Layer 2: Chip Designers – Innovation Under Strain

NVIDIA, AMD, and Apple rely on TSMC’s cutting-edge process. Intel, though domestic, still lags in process parity. Tariffs on tools and materials distort capital flows.

• NVIDIA’s $30K H100 chip may jump to $36K.

• AMD’s $1,000 CPUs face margin pressure.

• Intel’s fabrication foundry dreams, if they ever become a reality will take in this inflation.

Tariffs don’t target waste—they squeeze and stress the highly optimized supply chains.

Layer 3: AI Development – Compute Gets Costlier

AI needs compute. As chips grow costlier:

• $300 million model training runs become $360 million. Yes, this is what it takes to develop, train, and do inference with LLMs.

• Startups get priced out.

• China, making domestic gains, sidesteps this cost inflation.

Tariffs hurt America’s AI frontier more than China’s catch-up game.

Layer 4: Cloud Infrastructure – The Cost of Scale

Cloud infrastructure absorbs hardware inflation:

• Microsoft’s cloud margins are squeezed.

• Meta’s training clusters and Amazon’s logistics face cost creep.

• Smaller cloud players fall behind.

Tariffs tax not just infrastructure—they compound downstream friction.

Layer 5: Apple – Global Coordination Under Pressure

Apple spans the globe. For reasons that I will discuss in detail in a separate article in the future perhaps, Apple is the best example and a perfect case study for the complexity of the global technology supply chain. Moreover, Apple itself seems to be floundering even before the tariffs (another detailed article perhaps). In the end, Apple will probably gain a bit from a sector exemption (already in the works). But in a worst-case scenario and confusion, tariffs strain every link of this chain:

• iPhones may rise from $1,000 to $1,200.

• Production falls 10–15%.

• Apple Intelligence rollout may slow.

Tariffs don’t speed up diversification. They raise the cost of the current network.

Layer 6: The Broader U.S. Economy – Growth vs. Optics

Tech ($2.7+ Trillion) makes up roughly 10% of the US GDP (30+ Trillion) in value.

Some possible impacts:

• GDP may fall 0.5–1% annually.

• Inflation ticks up 1–2%.

• AI and innovation pipelines slow.

And what about the jobs we gain?

As Ben Thompson notes, many reshored jobs are low-skill, low-aspiration. Assembly line work is no replacement for high-leverage roles lost to margin compression and uncertainty. We risk swapping software engineers for packaging clerks.

Layer 7: Market Volatility – The Market Smells the Smoke

Markets are rattled:

• Tech stocks see intraday swings.

• VIX spikes.

• Capital reallocates away from uncertainty.

Markets don’t care about slogans. They react to distortion.

Layer 8: The Innovation Pipeline – Strangling the Source

Tariffs squeeze the startup ecosystem:

• Bill of Materials (BOM) costs for hardware founders rise 20–30%.

• VCs pull back from capital-intensive sectors.

• Only Big Tech can absorb cost risk. They can lobby for specific or sector exemptions.

But the real issue isn’t cost. It’s signal distortion.

Price signals become unreliable. Entrepreneurs hesitate. Capital misallocates. The result: fewer moonshots, more incrementalism, less dynamism.

We risk killing the next NVIDIA before it’s born.

The Global Paradox: Market Efficiency vs. National Security.

The free market drives efficiency and specialization which results in prosperity. But China’s control over key supply chains poses a real threat. In war or coercion, access could be cut off.

So tariffs appear prudent—preemptive defense. But they may cost more than they protect.

We need to formulate, articulate, and sell our vision domestically and internationally—not to spread democracy around the world, not with incoherent objectives like the ones we had in the past; but to benefit our economy, for our continued technology dominance and as a secondary benefit, positively uplift our true allies.

• Do we fully realize the importance of the AI supply chain?

• How do we balance open trade and strategic/national security control?

• How do we protect ourselves without hurting ourselves?

• How do we remain strong without imitating statism?

• Are we (the US) committed to rationally re-aligning our global supply chains (hi-tech and for everything else) and fostering free trade with allied powers (say India and the like)?

• Are we committed to securing our global supply chains (Taiwan/TSMC included) and be ready to defend them by military force if need be?

These are not policy tweaks. They are civilizational questions that will determine our fate and that of the world.

Conclusion: The Real Cost of Protectionism and the Need for Strategic Thinking

The AI supply chain is critical to the US's technological, economic, and military dominance.

The Trump administration’s motivation isn’t wrong. China cheats in more ways than one. Sovereignty matters.

But tariffs are the wrong tool.

Hazlitt warned us to consider the unseen. Thompson shows us that fragility compounds across layers. Markets are already reacting—with high volatility.

What’s most dangerous isn't the cost. It’s the confusion.

Tariffs confuse the economic judgment of individual actors. They substitute political fiat for price truth. They erode the very conditions that produce leadership: clarity, flexibility, and freedom.

America thrives when it trusts markets—not ministries. When it leads by creating—not imitating.

Perhaps the best part of the tariffs is that the Trump administration has brought this global supply chain issue and the national security threat to the US into sharp public focus and debate. But the solution through protectionism will not make the US stronger. Efficient supply chains spanning into allied counties, and our willingness to protect these crucial supply chains with military power when needed is what will sustain US dominance.

If we are to lead this century—not merely survive it—we must stop taxing the mechanisms that make tech and overall global economic leadership possible.